My Guess for the 2025 Mystery Surprise Horse

Last year for the first time ever, I took a stab at guessing who the BreyerFest Mystery Surprise Horse would be. It took a lot of thought and was harder than anticipated, so much so that the very next day, I revised that guess! (And the model turned out to be Emerson who wasn't even on my list.)

This year's BreyerFest is celebrating Breyer's 75th anniversary and that helped shape my guess. To me, it is logical that they will be using an iconic mold, and most likely one that is well loved by collectors. I also suspect that the mold that is used will be a vintage one, reflecting that long history the company has.

First off, I eliminated the Western Horse - it's already being used in the 2025 regular run line.

Then I looked at molds that not only were well liked, but were vintage and not being used already for BreyerFest or in the regular run line. Here are those "beloveds" in no particular order.

Beloveds

Proud Arabian Mare

Lady Phase

Othello

Huckleberry Bey

Goffert

Semi Rearing Mustang

Fighting Stallion

Adios

Indian Pony

Silver

Stretch Morgan

Who might I have forgotten? I walked around and took a look at my own shelves, paying particularly close attention to the vintage molds. Silver and the Stretch Morgan were added to the Beloved list, but not these:

Vintage but Unlikely to be Used

Belgian

Balking Mule (I may change my mind on this mold)

Running Stallion

Running Mare

Clydesdale Stallion

Clydesdale Mare

Western Horse with Rider

Western Pony

Western Prancer with Rider

Almost all of these molds have a fan base, but I didn't feel they were iconic enough to be used for the company's 75th anniversary.

It's always possible that Breyer might really go big and do something they have never done before. Creating this next list of possibilities was a fun part of my guessing. I don't think they will happen, though.

Dreaming Big but No

Mare & Foal set

Stallion, Mare & Foal set

Foal set

Clocks, Lamps, Music Boxes

Flockies (maybe as the decorator?)

A variety of vintage molds in vintage colors, not just one single mold used for the Surprise Horse

Satisfied that I had a strong list of contenders for the Surprise model, I went back to the Beloved list and then checked them against the list of who had been a Dinner Model/Celebration Horse, which would have given them even more use/exposure at BreyerFest. (I did not check them against having been BreyerFest LEs and SRs. Just too many to look at and record.)

Used as a Dinner Model/Celebration Horse?

Proud Arabian Mare - never

Lady Phase - 2000, Leah's Fancy Chic

Othello - 2012, Mariah's Boon

Huckleberry Bey - 2001, Atlantis Bey

Goffert - 2014, Gooitzen fan Teakesyl

Semi Rearing Mustang - 1993, Turbo the Wonder Horse

Fighting Stallion - never

Adios - 1995, Mego

Indian Pony - 1992, Mustang Lady

Silver - never

Stretch Morgan - never

As you can see from the highlighting, four of my top guesses have never been Dinner Models/Celebration Horses:

Fighting Stallion - extremely popular and second Vintage Club offering

Proud Arabian Mare - extremely popular

Silver - extremely popular

Stretch Morgan - moderately popular, especially with long time hobbyists

It was while looking at that list that two of those iconic beloveds jumped out at me. "There are my strongest contenders," I thought to myself. Still, I spent some time looking at the "Final Four" before making my guess,

First, I eliminated the Stretch Morgan. When compared to the Proud Arabian Mare, Fighting Stallion, and Silver, he is not nearly as popular as them. This is a very big anniversary that Breyer is celebrating and I think they are going to go big with the Mystery Surprise Horse.

Then, I eliminated Silver. That was hard - while he is highly popular, I think the other two represent the 75th anniversary better. Having said that, Silver is my third choice as to who the model will be and it would not surprise me (no pun intended) if he does, in fact, end up being the mold Breyer uses.

My guess this year is:

1st choice - Proud Arabian MareShe's beautiful,

she's iconic,

she's beloved,

and she is a perfect representation of all that Breyer is. If chosen, I think most collectors will be happy. (And some over the moon, like me.)

2nd choice - Fighting Stallion

He too is beautiful,

versatile color-wise,

iconic,

and would also make a lot of people happy if he were chosen. But he's "represented" the company before - for example, he was the second Vintage Club offering. (Photo used with permission.)

Both would be terrific choices as I see it. Here's what helped me narrow it down to the Proud Arabian Mare:

- The PAM is more conformationally correct, a big plus for those who like to live show. 

- She has never been done in the big four decorator colors (gold charm, wedgewood, florentine, and copenhagen) but the Fighting Stallion has and that would limit some of the options for the colors of the surprise horse if he were used. I think that it is highly possible that Breyer will bring back those four colors for the Mystery Surprise Horse.

(It also wouldn't surprise me if they used a mix of vintage and modern colors along with the decorator colors - charcoal, 5 gaiter sorrel, red roan, and more.)

One last thought, though. There are two models who have been used as the Dinner Model/Celebration Horse twice:

- Rejoice (1998, 2010)

- Smart Chic Olena (2006, 2013)

A precedent for repeating a mold has been set elsewhere. Would Breyer repeat a former Mystery Surprise Horse mold? I don't think they will, but never say never. 

So, I'm guessing we will be seeing the Proud Arabian Mare this July. Fingers crossed, and of course...

Stay 'tooned!! 

I Second Guess Myself

First Post of the Day

Good morning, folks. Yesterday I laid flowers on Abby's and Two Socks' graves. The healing process has begun for Hokey, Tim, and me but I think it will be a while. Such a freak accident. You hear about lightning strikes killing livestock but you never dream it will happen to you. 

I appreciate your comments and messages very much. I'm just not up to replying yet but please know they have been read and that I am grateful that you reached out.

I have begun writing a blog post about just what happened but that's proving to be very, very difficult. Tears start and I have to stop and go do something else. There may be a second post later this morning, though, so stay 'tooned.

On to the second blog post about the Mystery Surprise Horse that I had prepared and ready to go before Abby died.

Lynn

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Yesterday in my first guess at the Mystery Surprise Horse I posted the following determining criteria:

1) The model was publicly referred to as a mare by Breyer when they announced who SHE would be available to. 

2) A rumor is that the sculptor of the Mystery Surprise Horse is Kathleen Moody. I do not know the source of that information. 

Called a mare by Breyer itself? Not a rumor - count that as a fact.

But no one from Breyer has stated that the sculptor of this year's surprise horse was Kathleen Moody. That is a rumor, and so I am taking that off the table and revising my guesses.

2020 Mystery Horse Slainte Surprise from my collection and known as Sweet Amy.

First, I looked at my dream list from yesterday and eliminated those molds I did not think were in contention.

Lynn's Revised Dream List

~ Proud Arabian Mare (highly popular mold)

~ Lady Phase  (highly popular mold, used many, many times before)

~ Lippizaner Mare (used for BreyerFest recently)

~ Standing Quarter Horse Mare (popular, recently used for BreyerFest)

Next, I took a look at heavy mares.

Lynn's Revised Go with the Theme/Power Horses

~ Wixom (not seen much any more, older mold)

I had written, At this point, I crossed off both the heavy mares  (keeping Wixom in mind as a slight possibility despite not being a Moody mold. Wixom just "felt right.")

And then Wixom appeared as an auction lot on Friday. Her chances at being the surprise horse went up in my mind.

I continued the revising.

Lynn's Revised Other Mares that Might be the Mystery Surprise

Andalusian Mare (used a lot recently)

Show Stance Arabian (many mixed opinions about her)

Strapless (has a good fan base, not used much recently)

Weather Girl (has two appearances as BF specials))

Lynn's Revised Mare & Foal Pairs

I eliminated the Mare & Foal pairs completely. They were a stretch to begin with and I just don't think Breyer would do that.

My new list included Moody molds but not exclusively. In alphabetical order:

Lynn's Revised List Using the Mare Only Criteria

Andalusian Mare

Arabian Mares (Just a Dream/Make a Wish/Oasis)

Lady Phase

Lippizaner Mare

Marabella 

Proud Arabian Mare

Show Stance Arabian

Standing Quarter Horse Mare

Strapless

Suscecion 

Weather Girl

Wixom

And then I started eliminating models based on their mold popularity, if they's been a BreyerFest surprise horse already, how recently they had been used as a BreyerFest horse, and so on.

Here are my Top Five Guesses:

Who I Think the Surprise Horse Might Be Now

1) Wixom

2) Andalusian Mare

3) Lippizaner Mare 

4) Proud Arabian Mare (long shot but within possibility range)

5) Marabella (long shot but within possibility range)

HM) Lady Phase (long shot but within possibility range)

I've arranged and rearranged this list multiple times. Tomorrow it might look different, and when the last lots of auction horses are released, it could change again. Honestly, none of those guesses would surprise me if they were the 2024 Mystery Surprise Horse. 

Screenshot of Wixom from Amazon.

But for the moment, I am sticking with Wixom. She is an older mold who has stood the test of time. We know her mold has been run as recently as 2021. She's a mare, strong, and has a lot of that "girls run the world" power that's part of this BreyerFest offering.

(I still think it would be cool if Breyer used all three Arabian Horse mold variations as the Surprise Horse but I don't think that will happen. At least, not this year.)

Not much longer and we will know who it is!