I Second Guess Myself

First Post of the Day

Good morning, folks. Yesterday I laid flowers on Abby's and Two Socks' graves. The healing process has begun for Hokey, Tim, and me but I think it will be a while. Such a freak accident. You hear about lightning strikes killing livestock but you never dream it will happen to you. 

I appreciate your comments and messages very much. I'm just not up to replying yet but please know they have been read and that I am grateful that you reached out.

I have begun writing a blog post about just what happened but that's proving to be very, very difficult. Tears start and I have to stop and go do something else. There may be a second post later this morning, though, so stay 'tooned.

On to the second blog post about the Mystery Surprise Horse that I had prepared and ready to go before Abby died.

Lynn

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Yesterday in my first guess at the Mystery Surprise Horse I posted the following determining criteria:

1) The model was publicly referred to as a mare by Breyer when they announced who SHE would be available to. 

2) A rumor is that the sculptor of the Mystery Surprise Horse is Kathleen Moody. I do not know the source of that information. 

Called a mare by Breyer itself? Not a rumor - count that as a fact.

But no one from Breyer has stated that the sculptor of this year's surprise horse was Kathleen Moody. That is a rumor, and so I am taking that off the table and revising my guesses.

2020 Mystery Horse Slainte Surprise from my collection and known as Sweet Amy.

First, I looked at my dream list from yesterday and eliminated those molds I did not think were in contention.

Lynn's Revised Dream List

~ Proud Arabian Mare (highly popular mold)

~ Lady Phase  (highly popular mold, used many, many times before)

~ Lippizaner Mare (used for BreyerFest recently)

~ Standing Quarter Horse Mare (popular, recently used for BreyerFest)

Next, I took a look at heavy mares.

Lynn's Revised Go with the Theme/Power Horses

~ Wixom (not seen much any more, older mold)

I had written, At this point, I crossed off both the heavy mares  (keeping Wixom in mind as a slight possibility despite not being a Moody mold. Wixom just "felt right.")

And then Wixom appeared as an auction lot on Friday. Her chances at being the surprise horse went up in my mind.

I continued the revising.

Lynn's Revised Other Mares that Might be the Mystery Surprise

Andalusian Mare (used a lot recently)

Show Stance Arabian (many mixed opinions about her)

Strapless (has a good fan base, not used much recently)

Weather Girl (has two appearances as BF specials))

Lynn's Revised Mare & Foal Pairs

I eliminated the Mare & Foal pairs completely. They were a stretch to begin with and I just don't think Breyer would do that.

My new list included Moody molds but not exclusively. In alphabetical order:

Lynn's Revised List Using the Mare Only Criteria

Andalusian Mare

Arabian Mares (Just a Dream/Make a Wish/Oasis)

Lady Phase

Lippizaner Mare

Marabella 

Proud Arabian Mare

Show Stance Arabian

Standing Quarter Horse Mare

Strapless

Suscecion 

Weather Girl

Wixom

And then I started eliminating models based on their mold popularity, if they's been a BreyerFest surprise horse already, how recently they had been used as a BreyerFest horse, and so on.

Here are my Top Five Guesses:

Who I Think the Surprise Horse Might Be Now

1) Wixom

2) Andalusian Mare

3) Lippizaner Mare 

4) Proud Arabian Mare (long shot but within possibility range)

5) Marabella (long shot but within possibility range)

HM) Lady Phase (long shot but within possibility range)

I've arranged and rearranged this list multiple times. Tomorrow it might look different, and when the last lots of auction horses are released, it could change again. Honestly, none of those guesses would surprise me if they were the 2024 Mystery Surprise Horse. 

Screenshot of Wixom from Amazon.

But for the moment, I am sticking with Wixom. She is an older mold who has stood the test of time. We know her mold has been run as recently as 2021. She's a mare, strong, and has a lot of that "girls run the world" power that's part of this BreyerFest offering.

(I still think it would be cool if Breyer used all three Arabian Horse mold variations as the Surprise Horse but I don't think that will happen. At least, not this year.)

Not much longer and we will know who it is!