My Guess - The Winnowing Out Process

After posting my guess for the Mystery Surprise Horse last year, I made some changes to that guess. This year, I'm not making any changes, but I am making a correction* and I am sharing my thought process and how I winnowed out a whole lot of possible, even deserving, models.

I'd mentioned that I had walked around and taken a look at my shelves, looking for possibilities. These are the models that I considered but did not make it onto any of yesterday's lists:

Family Arabian Stallion 

Family Arabian Mare 

Family Arabian Foal 

Man O' War

5 Gaiter

Pacer

Sham

Proud Arabian Stallion

Proud Arabian Foal

Grazing Mare

Grazing Foal

Misty

Shetland Pony

Big Ben

Cantering Welsh Pony

Saddlebred Weanling

Gem Twist

Hanoverian

Jumping Horse

Donkey

Brighty

Wixom

Stud Spider

Stock Horse Stallion

Stock Horse Mare

Smoky

Sherman Morgan

John Henry

Quarter Horse Yearling

Quarter Horse Gelding

Missouri Fox Trotter

Secretariat

Scratching Foal

Lying Foal

Roy

El Pastor

Hackney

From that list of 37 molds, almost half were eliminated immediately due to popularity, conformation issues, and other things:

Family Arabian Stallion 

Family Arabian Mare 

Family Arabian Foal 

Pacer

Grazing Mare (a personal favorite)

Grazing Foal

Gem Twist

Jumping Horse

Stock Horse Stallion

Stock Horse Mare

Smoky

Sherman Morgan

Quarter Horse Yearling

Quarter Horse Gelding (iconic, but not very popular)

Secretariat

Roy

El Pastor

Hackney

*Silver (I'd forgotten that he was appearing as the special run, To the Ties that Bind Us so he would've been eliminated, too)

That left these models on the list of possibilities:

Man O' War

5 Gaiter

Sham

Proud Arabian Stallion

Proud Arabian Foal

Misty

Shetland Pony

Big Ben

Cantering Welsh Pony

Hanoverian

Donkey

Brighty

Wixom

Stud Spider

John Henry

Missouri Fox Trotter

Scratching Foal

Lying Foal

The price point on the Mystery Surprise Horse is high and in my opinion, using a smaller mold would make many hobbyists unhappy, so these molds were eliminated from my list. 

Proud Arabian Foal

Misty (an iconic mold and deserving to be used)

Shetland Pony

Donkey

Brighty

Scratching Foal

Lying Foal

Cantering Welsh Pony (very borderline in the too-small category)

Leaving these models still in contention:

Man O' War

5 Gaiter

Sham

Proud Arabian Stallion

Big Ben

Hanoverian

Wixom

Stud Spider

John Henry

Missouri Fox Trotter (another personal favorite)

There were still some on the list that I felt were highly unlikely, either because they'd been used recently or didn't have hobbyists' hearts as much as others. I removed those, and the Final Four of the "left on the shelves" were:

Man o' War

5 Gaiter

Proud Arabian Stallion

Big Ben

All have their fans, but I am looking for the iconic, something that truly represents Breyer over the course of 75 years. And just as it did yesterday, one model jumped out at me and fit that well. 

The 5 Gaiter

My much loved carpet herd Sham and one of my most favorite molds. In fact, the 5 Gaiter mold is the third largest conga in my collection at 28 pieces.

The mold was introduced in 1962 and was produced in the Big Four decorator colors and in woodgrain.

It's also one of the few molds that received the very early gold tenite sticker.

Early glossy palomino (a member of Leslie's carpet herd), alabaster with black eyes, and alabaster with red eyes.

I love this mold so much. (Liz found this piece at BreyerFest 2023 and brought it home for me. Thanks, Liz!)

So, why didn't I put it on the list of possibilities for this year's Mystery Surprise Horse?

It was just used in April for the Vintage Club pairing of Admiral and Wings.

Plus, the Five Gaiter has already been released in all of the Big Four decorator colors and I think there is a strong chance that those deco colors will be used for the Mystery Surprise Horse.

That was enough to take it out of contention for me. (Photo used with permission.)

I'm standing by the Proud Arabian Mare as the Mystery Surprise Horse for 2025 with the Fighting Stallion as a strong possibility. But if it's not one of them, there are several others that would also make me happy.

Now, we just have to stay 'tooned until July!